Hand Analysis: Is Alex Foxen's Play with AK Optimal at the WSOP 2026?

Professional Lukas Robinson analyzes a key hand between Alex Foxen and Aleksejs Ponakovs at the $250,000 Super High Roller WSOP 2026 using GTO Wizard.

In this article, we take a detailed look at one of the most talked-about hands from Day 1 of the $250,000 No-Limit Hold'em Super High Roller tournament, held as part of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP). The analysis is provided by professional player and streamer Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson, who breaks down the actions of Alex Foxen and Aleksejs Ponakovs using the modern solver GTO Wizard. The hand attracted attention not only because of the scale of the tournament and the names involved, but also due to the interesting clash of strategies at a deep stage of the event. Context: Tournament, Players, and Stack Situations The hand took place on Day 1 of the $250,000 No-Limit Hold'em Super High Roller—one of the most expensive and prestigious tournaments of WSOP 2026. The event brought together the strongest professionals, ready to risk huge sums for a shot at a seven-figure prize. At the center of the action were two recognized masters of tournament poker: Alex Foxen — holding a stack of 2,700,000 chips (225 big blinds), seated in the lowjack (LJ) position, which is third to the left of the button. Aleksejs Ponakovs — with a stack of 1,500,000 chips (125 big blinds), seated in the hijack (HJ), directly after Foxen in position. The blinds at the time of the hand were 6,000/12,000, with a 12,000 big blind ante. Such deep stacks allow players to employ complex strategies and play a wide range of hands. Hand Progression: Street by Street with Commentary Let's take a closer look at how the hand between Foxen and Ponakovs unfolded, and what decisions were made at each stage: Preflop Foxen opens the action with a raise to 27,000 holding A♥K♠ from the lowjack. This is a standard opening raise with such a hand, especially given the stack depth. Ponakovs responds with a three-bet to 100,000 holding A♣2♣ from the hijack. This is an aggressive move, and as noted by the GTO Wizard solver, three-betting A2s against a lowjack open is extremely rare and has the lowest expected value (EV) compared to folding or calling. Nevertheless, Ponakovs chooses this line. Foxen decides to just call the three-bet, opting not to four-bet. The solver supports this decision, as with such deep stacks, four-betting AKo often leads to tough spots against a possible shove. Calling keeps dominated Ax hands in the opponent's range, which is exactly what happened in this hand. Flop: J♦5♣3♦ (pot 230,000) Foxen checks. The solver considers this optimal: the hijack (Ponakovs) retains a range advantage, so checking is the standard line for Foxen. Ponakovs makes a continuation bet of 86,000 (about 37% of the pot). The solver recommends betting this flop with 81.8% of the range, and the sizing chosen by Ponakovs matches the recommended (37%). For A2s, this bet is the preferred option, though occasional checks are also allowed. Foxen calls with A♥K♠. The solver confirms that calling is the best option for all AKo combos on this flop, with A♥K♠ specifically yielding the highest EV. Turn: (card not specified, but action continues) Foxen checks again. The solver advises continuing to check, not taking the initiative on this street. Ponakovs bets 195,000 (about 49% of the pot). GTO Wizard prefers a larger sizing—67% of the pot—but the EV difference between these sizes is negligible, so Ponakovs' chosen sizing is perfectly acceptable. Foxen calls again with A♥K♠. The solver recommends calling with almost all AKo combos, though it occasionally allows rare raises with specific combinations. River: (card not specified, but Ponakovs ends up with a straight) Foxen checks once more, not taking the initiative. Ponakovs bets 650,000 (82% of the pot). The solver prefers a polarized bet size on the river—either all-in or 67% of the pot. However, the 82% pot size chosen by Ponakovs is used by the solver about 14% of the time, so this option is also acceptable. Foxen quickly calls with A♥K♠. The solver fully approves of this decision and even recommends occasionally shoving all-in with this hand against such a bet, though calling is the main option. Ponakovs shows A♣2♣ and takes down the 2,092,000-chip pot, making a straight on the river. Foxen, smiling, mucks his cards. GTO Analysis: What the Solver Thinks of the Players' Actions Using GTO Wizard, Lukas Robinson compared Foxen's and Ponakovs' decisions to optimal strategy. Here are the main takeaways: Foxen's open with A♥K♠ from the lowjack: fully in line with GTO strategy for this position and stack depth. Ponakovs' three-bet with A♣2♣ from the hijack: the solver very rarely chooses this move. In most cases, the EV of three-betting this hand is lower than calling or folding against a lowjack open. Foxen's call of the three-bet with A♥K♠: the optimal decision with such deep stacks, as four-betting leads to tough spots against a possible shove. Flop actions: Foxen's check and Ponakovs' c-bet are both solver-approved, and the chosen bet sizes match GTO recommendations. Turn actions: Ponakovs chooses a slightly smaller bet size than recommended, but the EV difference is minimal. River actions: The solver prefers all-in or 67% pot, but Ponakovs' 82% pot bet is also present in the solver's strategy, though less frequently. Foxen's river call: fully in line with GTO. Moreover, the solver sometimes prefers shoving all-in with A♥K♠ against such a bet, but calling is the main option. Polarized Betting Strategy: What Is It? In his river analysis, Robinson emphasizes that the solver recommends using a polarized betting strategy . This means the player makes large bets only with two types of hands: The strongest combinations (nuts, very strong hands) Bluffs (hands that can't win at showdown unless the opponent folds) Medium-strength hands are more often checked in this strategy, to avoid facing a raise or losing a lot to the opponent's strongest range. The goal of a polarized strategy is to maximize value with strong hands and put pressure on the opponent with bluffs, making it difficult and uncomfortable for them to play against your range. Comparing Player Decisions to GTO and Conclusions Analyzing the hand with GTO Wizard, Robinson notes: Foxen played as close to optimal strategy as possible on every street: his open, calls, and checks fully match solver recommendations. Ponakovs showed a lot of creativity by three-betting a hand the solver almost never uses for aggression against a lowjack open. However, his postflop actions, bet sizes, and river aggression generally fit within acceptable GTO strategies, even if they're not always preferred. From the solver's perspective, after making a straight on the river, Ponakovs should have chosen all-in more often rather than an 82% pot bet, as this yields higher expected value. Nevertheless, the chosen bet size is also present in optimal strategy, though less frequently. Despite the unfavorable outcome, Foxen did everything right from a game theory perspective: his quick call is fully justified mathematically, and in some cases, even shoving all-in is recommended against such a bet. Thus, the hand clearly demonstrates how deep stacks and aggressive ranges lead to complex and interesting decisions even at the highest level of play. Hand and Payout Summary The original does not provide the final tournament standings or payout distribution, as the focus is on analyzing a specific hand. However, for clarity, here are the main parameters of the hand: Tournament: $250,000 No-Limit Hold'em Super High Roller, WSOP 2026 Day: 1 Blinds: 6,000/12,000, ante 12,000 Players: Alex Foxen (LJ, 2,700,000, 225 BB), Aleksejs Ponakovs (HJ, 1,500,000, 125 BB) Preflop: Foxen raises to 27,000 (A♥K♠), Ponakovs 3-bets to 100,000 (A♣2♣), Foxen calls Flop: J♦5♣3♦ (pot 230,000) — check, bet 86,000, call Turn: (card not specified) — check, bet 195,000, call River: (card not specified) — check, bet 650,000, call Showdown: Ponakovs wins the 2,092,000 pot with A♣2♣ (straight) Who is Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson? The author of the analysis, Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson, is a professional player, streamer, and poker content creator. In 2021, he gained widespread recognition by setting the Twitch world record for continuous online poker: 1,000 hours in 100 days. Robinson also participated in the first season of the "Game of Gold" show. His expert analyses using GTO Wizard are popular among players looking to improve their strategic thinking skills. What This Means for PPPoker Club Players This hand analysis clearly shows how important it is to consider stack depth and opponent ranges when making decisions. Even strong hands like AKo are not always best played aggressively preflop, especially with deep stacks: it's often more profitable to control the pot size and keep weaker hands in play. This is especially relevant for club games on PPPoker, where you encounter both tight and loose opponents, and stack depths can vary from table to table. Another practical takeaway is the importance of bet sizing on the postflop streets. Using polarized strategies (large bets with the nuts and bluffs, checking with medium-strength hands) makes your play less predictable and more difficult for opponents. In PPPoker club games, where many players tend to use "standard" bet sizes, implementing such strategies will give you a significant edge. Finally, analysis with GTO Wizard shows that even at the highest level, players sometimes deviate from optimal decisions, adapting to their opponent or the situation. For PPPoker club players, this is a signal: don't be afraid to experiment, but always review your hands and seek a balance between theory and practice. Use modern training tools to improve your strategy and get the most out of every session.