GTO Wizard: Should you shove queens on the river at EPT Malta 2025?

Analysis of a key hand with queens on the river in the EPT Malta 2025 Main Event. We break down the all-in decision against strong opponents.

GTO Wizard: How Justified Is a River All-In With Queens? Hand Overview: Tournament, Players, and History The action takes place on Day 1 of the EPT Malta 2025 Main Event with a buy-in of €5,300 . The blinds are 400/800 with a BB ante of 800 . The table is packed with top players, including Spanish pro Gerard Carbo , who recently finished second in the €1,650 EPT Malta Open Main Event and won €264,650 . The author (Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson) has already tried to bluff Carbo twice in big pots, but both times Carbo made impressive calls. Despite these setbacks, Robinson keeps battling and picks up pocket queens ( Q♦Q♥ ) in the cutoff (CO). Starting Stacks and Positions CO (Lukas Robinson): 60,000 (75 BB) SB (Gerard Carbo): 85,000 (106 BB) Pre-Hand Action Robinson opens to 1,600 with Q♦Q♥. Carbo in the small blind 3-bets to 6,400. Robinson responds with a 4-bet to 14,000, and Carbo calls. Dynamic Between the Players The history of previous hands between these players impacts their decisions in this pot: Carbo has already caught Robinson bluffing, so he’s more willing to make thin calls. This is important for understanding the rest of the hand and analyzing the river decisions. Street-by-Street Breakdown: Action and Analysis Preflop CO (Q♦Q♥): raises to 1,600 SB (A♠A♥): 3-bets to 6,400 CO: 4-bets to 14,000 SB: calls Robinson opens with queens—a standard play with a strong hand. Carbo 3-bets with aces, which is also GTO Wizard-approved. After the 4-bet with queens, Carbo just calls with aces instead of shoving, which fits a balanced strategy: this way, he keeps strong hands in his calling range and doesn’t reveal his hand strength too early. Flop: 6♥6♦2♦ (pot 30,000) SB: checks CO: bets 7,500 SB: calls On the flop, Carbo checks, which is GTO—donk bets are very rare here. Robinson makes a continuation bet of 7,500 (about 25% of the pot), which is also solver-approved: on these boards, it’s optimal to use small bets with your whole range to balance value and bluffs. Turn: (pot 45,000) SB: checks CO: bets 15,000 SB: calls Carbo checks again. The solver allows a small number of donk bets on the turn, but in real games, most players keep checking. Robinson bets 15,000 (about 32% of the pot)—the solver says this size is acceptable, but overall it more often recommends either checking or going all-in. In fact, the EV (expected value) for checking queens on the turn is even higher than for betting 32%. River: (pot 75,000) SB: checks CO: all-in 23,500 SB: calls On the river, Carbo checks again, though the solver says the optimal play is to shove himself: now the small blind has more flushes than the cutoff, since Robinson didn’t bet the turn with a flush draw. This shifts the range balance in Carbo’s favor, making a donk bet preferable. Robinson shoves 23,500 with queens. The solver says this play is too thin: for a value shove on the river, only A♦K♦ and jacks are suitable. All queen combos should check—they have higher EV than betting. Carbo calls with aces. The solver suggests a mixed strategy: sometimes call, sometimes fold, but on average, calling has higher EV. As a result, Robinson is eliminated from the tournament, and Carbo wins the pot with A♠A♥. GTO Wizard: Range and Decision Analysis Solver Preflop Strategies According to GTO Wizard, opening with queens from the CO, 3-betting aces from the SB, and 4-betting with queens are all optimal plays. With queens, the solver suggests mixing between calling and 4-betting, with the EV of both options being almost identical (21.94 BB). Carbo’s call of the 4-bet with aces is perfect from a GTO perspective. This approach keeps his hand strength hidden and balances his 4-bet calling range, so opponents can’t easily exploit him by assuming he only has medium-strength hands. Using the Nodelock Feature in GTO Wizard For the most realistic analysis, the author uses the nodelock feature in GTO Wizard to lock in the actual ranges that were in play, not just theoretical ones. This allows for an assessment of how real decisions compare to GTO and where deviations occurred. Postflop Analysis On the flop, the solver recommends two bet sizes: 15% and 25% of the pot. For queens, 25% is preferred, but mixing is allowed. With aces, Carbo prefers to call on the flop, though sometimes shoving for protection and value is possible. On the turn, the solver advises checking or shoving with queens more often. The 32% bet size is rare and has lower EV than checking. On the river, the solver recommends the SB shoving himself, since he has more flushes in his range. For the CO (with queens), checking is optimal, not shoving all-in. Realistic Ranges and the Impact of Previous Decisions Once a player deviates from GTO on one street, it’s important to keep analyzing the hand based on the actual actions taken (off-tree play). The nodelock feature lets you see how these deviations affect later decisions and where leaks in strategy appear. Explaining the Decisions: Why the River All-In Was Made Robinson explains that his river all-in with queens was based on expecting to get called by worse hands, like tens or nines. However, according to the solver, by this point the opponent’s range almost never contains those hands—they should have folded on the turn. Plus, Carbo has many flushes on the river, which are always ahead of queens. Against most players, Robinson would have checked the river, since TT and 99 almost always fold to an all-in. But Carbo is an experienced pro who might call with those hands if he thinks Robinson is bluffing (for example, with AK or AQ with a diamond). The history of previous bluffs made Carbo more motivated to make such calls. Still, even if you remove possible flushes from the opponent’s range, the solver still advises folding TT and 99 on the turn, so by the river, a queens all-in is too thin and unprofitable. GTO Wizard’s Conclusion The river all-in with Q♦Q♥ is too thin and loses to a check-back in terms of EV. Carbo played the hand almost perfectly, while Robinson has room to improve his strategy. The main lesson: it’s important to honestly analyze your decisions and use tools like GTO Wizard to find and fix leaks. Hand and Prize Breakdown Tournament: EPT Malta Main Event 2025, €5,300 buy-in Day: 1 Blinds: 400/800 (BB ante 800) CO (Lukas Robinson): 60,000 (75 BB) SB (Gerard Carbo): 85,000 (106 BB) CO: Q♦Q♥ SB: A♠A♥ 2nd place prize in €1,650 EPT Malta Open Main Event: €264,650 (Gerard Carbo) Who Are the Players: Context Gerard Carbo — Spanish pro, recently finished second in the €1,650 EPT Malta Open Main Event and won €264,650. Known for making tough calls in big pots and sticking to a balanced GTO strategy. Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson — professional player, streamer, and content creator. In 2021, he set a Twitch world record by playing 1,000 hours of online poker in 100 days. He also appeared in the first season of "Game of Gold." Poker Terms and Formats: Explanations GTO (Game Theory Optimal): the optimal poker strategy based on game theory. It means playing in a way that can’t be exploited, no matter what your opponent does. 4-bet: the fourth raise in a hand (raise – 3-bet – 4-bet). Continuation bet (c-bet): a bet made by the player who showed aggression on the previous street (for example, opened preflop and then bet the flop). All-in: betting all your chips. Donk bet: a bet made out of position by a player who wasn’t the aggressor on the previous street. EV (expected value): the average profitability of an action in the long run. Nodelock: a solver feature that lets you "lock" certain hand ranges for analyzing real game situations. Practical Takeaways: How Club Players on PPPoker Can Use This Experience For PPPoker club members, this hand is a great example of how important it is not just to know theory, but to apply it in real situations. Even experienced players can overestimate their hand strength if they don’t consider their opponent’s range and the hand dynamics. Using GTO strategies and analyzing your decisions with solvers helps you spot leaks and avoid overplaying hands on later streets. In club games on PPPoker, you’ll often see opponents making unorthodox decisions: some call too wide, others overvalue their hands. That’s why it’s important not just to learn from top pros, but also to adapt GTO to your opponents’ styles. The nodelock feature in solvers helps you model the exact situations you face in your club games. The main lesson—don’t be afraid to analyze your mistakes and experiment with different strategies. Even if you make a mistake in one hand, honest review and working with tools like GTO Wizard will help you grow faster as a player and achieve better results in PPPoker clubs.