GTO Wizard: Phil Ivey's Hand Analysis with Aces at Triton Jeju 2024

Phil Ivey found himself in the spotlight after a controversial hand with aces at Triton Jeju 2024. Let's analyze whether it was a punt or optimal play according to GTO Wizard.

In one of the most talked-about episodes of the Triton Jeju 2024 high roller series, the legendary Phil Ivey found himself in the spotlight after a hand that at first glance might have seemed like a “punt”—that is, a reckless loss of his entire stack. However, a detailed analysis of this hand using GTO Wizard shows that Ivey acted strictly according to game theory optimal (GTO) strategy. Let’s break down this case step by step and find out whether Ivey really made a mistake, or if his decision was the only correct one from the perspective of modern poker mathematics. Context: the tournament, players, and the significance of the hand The hand took place in one of the most expensive tournaments of the year—the $200,000 No-Limit Hold'em Triton Invitational, held as part of the Triton Jeju series. This event brought together the elite of world poker, with recognized masters at the table, including 11-time WSOP bracelet winner Phil Ivey and Gytis Lazauninkas. At the time of the hand, the blinds were 500/1,000, and Ivey had 222,000 chips, which equaled 222 big blinds—a very deep stack for such an early stage of the tournament. Lazauninkas also had a covering stack. In tournaments like this, every hand with such deep stacks can be decisive: losing your entire stack almost always means busting from the tournament, and thus losing a huge buy-in and the chance at a prize. Step-by-step breakdown of the hand Preflop: standard actions Gytis Lazauninkas opens from UTG+2, raising to 2,500 with pocket nines (9♥9♠). This is a standard play for all pairs from this position and stack depth. Phil Ivey , on the button, is dealt pocket aces (A♥A♣) and 3-bets to 10,000. According to GTO, you should always 3-bet with aces, while with kings, for example, you can sometimes just call if the effective stacks are very deep. Lazauninkas calls the 3-bet with 9♥9♠. This is also optimal: all pocket pairs should continue against a 3-bet, with nines most often just calling, occasionally mixing in low-frequency 4-bets. Flop: set versus overpair The flop comes 9♦4♣2♥. For Ivey, this is an extremely unlucky board: he has an overpair, but his opponent has flopped a set of nines. Lazauninkas checks. The solver recommends not donk-betting (betting out of turn) on this flop, because the button has the advantage in expected value (EV) and position. Ivey makes a continuation bet of 15,000—the exact size recommended by GTO Wizard. With aces on this flop, you should almost always bet to extract value and protect against possible draws. Lazauninkas calls. The solver recommends mostly just calling with a set, rather than raising: this allows the opponent to keep bluffing and maximizes the chance to win all the chips by the river. Turn: more draws and a trap The turn is the 3♦, which gives Ivey additional outs to a straight (a gutshot). The pot is now 52,500. Lazauninkas checks again, continuing to set the trap. According to the solver, even after this card, a donk-bet is not recommended: UTG+2 now has slightly more equity, but the button still has more combinations of the strongest hands (aces, kings), which are not in the opponent’s range. Ivey bets 45,000—85% of the pot, and this bet size fully matches GTO recommendations for all combinations of aces. Kings and queens sometimes check, while jacks and tens prefer to check more often. Lazauninkas shoves all-in for 152,000 more. The solver advises mostly calling with a set of nines, but sometimes (at low frequency) shoving—and this action also fits within the optimal range. River: the showdown and Ivey’s bustout Ivey, faced with a tough decision, goes into the tank but ultimately calls the all-in. The river is the 3♣, which doesn’t help Ivey, and Lazauninkas makes a full house. Ivey is eliminated from the tournament, losing his entire stack. Ivey’s decision to call the all-in with aces is a purely GTO-correct action. The solver shows that aces should always call in this spot, regardless of stack depth. Kings and queens also mostly call, while jacks and tens start leaning toward folding, which explains why those hands are more often played through a check on the turn. GTO analysis: every action is optimal Let’s break down each street from a game theory optimal (GTO) perspective: Preflop: Opening with 99 and 3-betting with AA—both actions are fully GTO-approved. Flop: C-bet with AA at the optimal size, call with a set—both decisions are solver-recommended. Turn: Betting with AA for 85% of the pot is standard, shoving with 99 is acceptable at low frequency. Ivey’s call: Despite the deep stack (over 200 big blinds), calling with aces against the shove range is the only correct decision according to theory. To check whether calling with aces becomes a mistake against a tighter (less bluff-heavy) all-in range, the article’s author reduced Lazauninkas’s shove frequency from 9% to 5%. Even then, AA remains a profitable call, while queens start folding more often. Why this isn’t a “punt”: the difference between a mistake and bad luck The poker community often discusses situations where a strong player loses their entire stack with an overpair, especially with deep stacks. Such hands are sometimes called a “punt”—meaning a pointless waste of chips. However, in this case, Ivey didn’t make a single mistake: all his actions were optimal from a GTO perspective, and the loss is explained solely by an unlucky card matchup (a cooler). Even if the opponent’s shove range was even tighter, calling with aces would still be profitable. Thus, Ivey didn’t lose because he overvalued his hand or failed to consider stack depth, but because he found himself in a spot where it was impossible to avoid losing without deviating from theory. Full action table and GTO Wizard evaluation Street Action Player Hand Bet size GTO evaluation Preflop Open Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ 2,500 Optimal Preflop 3-bet Phil Ivey A♥A♣ 10,000 Optimal Preflop Call 3-bet Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ — Optimal Flop (22,500) Check Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ — Optimal Flop C-bet Phil Ivey A♥A♣ 15,000 Optimal Flop Call Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ — Optimal Turn (52,500) Check Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ — Optimal Turn Bet Phil Ivey A♥A♣ 45,000 Optimal Turn All-in Gytis Lazauninkas 9♥9♠ 152,000 Optimal (low frequency) Turn Call all-in Phil Ivey A♥A♣ 152,000 Optimal River 3♣ (Lazauninkas full house) — — — — Impact of ranges and node locking: when does calling with aces become a mistake? The article’s author conducted additional analysis, reducing Lazauninkas’s all-in frequency from 9% to 5% (so-called node locking). This means the shove range becomes stronger and contains fewer bluffs. Even in this case, according to the solver, calling with aces remains highly profitable, while queens start folding more often. This highlights that in such situations, even against a very strong opponent range, you cannot fold aces—otherwise, you start losing EV in the long run. Who are the players in the hand: brief context Phil Ivey —one of the most decorated players in poker history, 11-time WSOP bracelet winner, and a member of the Poker Hall of Fame. His decisions at the table are often the subject of analysis and discussion. Gytis Lazauninkas —a regular in elite Triton tournaments, consistently plays at high stakes, which confirms his level and understanding of GTO strategies. Conclusions: lessons from the hand for all players The hand between Ivey and Lazauninkas is an example of how even perfect play does not guarantee a positive result in a given session. Ivey made no mistakes, but fell victim to a cooler—a situation where losing is inevitable with optimal strategy. This underscores the importance of a long-term approach: even the best players in the world sometimes bust early if they run into a cooler. The key is to maintain discipline and stick to optimal strategy, not letting emotions take over. What this means for PPPoker club players For PPPoker club members, this analysis offers several practical lessons. First, even with deep stacks and in expensive tournaments, you shouldn’t be afraid to make big decisions with your strongest hands—if your actions are GTO-approved, you’ll profit in the long run, despite occasional setbacks. Second, it’s important to understand that losing your entire stack is not always a mistake. If you run into a cooler and lose with an overpair against a set, that’s part of the game. The main thing is to analyze your actions from a theoretical perspective, not just based on the result of a single hand. Finally, studying such hands and analyzing them with tools like GTO Wizard will help PPPoker club players improve their strategy, make more informed decisions, and avoid tilt after unlucky sessions. This is especially relevant in clubs where deep stack games and strong opponents are common.