Bluffing with Ace-King: Niki Palma’s Mistake at Poker Masters?

We break down Niki Palma's bold bluff against Vitalijs Zavorotnijs at Poker Masters. GTO Wizard analyzes whether this move was justified.

As part of the prestigious Poker Masters series on the PokerGO Tour platform, the purple jacket—the symbol of the series championship—was up for grabs. The eighth event of the series, Event #8: $15,700 NLH , became the stage for a tense battle between Nicholas Palma and Vitalijs Zavorotnijs . At stake was not only the title but also a hefty prize: the winner was set to receive $277,200 . Both players had already secured one victory each at this festival and were looking to strengthen their positions. The Hand: Key Moment at the Final Table The action unfolded at the final table with six players remaining. The blinds were 20,000/40,000 with a 40,000 big blind ante. Nicholas Palma was on the small blind with a stack of 1,540,000 (38.5 big blinds), while Vitalijs Zavorotnijs had 1,155,000 (28.9 BB) on the big blind. The action folded to Palma, who raised to 140,000 with A♥K♥ . Zavorotnijs defended his big blind with J♠10♥ . The flop came J♥8♣7♥ . Zavorotnijs hit top pair (jack-high), while Palma had the nut flush draw (the highest possible flush draw if another heart comes) and two overcards to the board. Palma made a continuation bet of 135,000 , and Zavorotnijs called. The turn brought the 5♠ , which didn’t change the balance of power. Palma moved all-in, putting Zavorotnijs to a tough decision for his remaining 840,000 chips. After a long tank and using several time banks, the Latvian player called with his pair of jacks. The river 10♦ improved Zavorotnijs to two pair and gave him a pot of 2,270,000 chips, making him the chip leader. Palma was left with a short stack— 425,000 . Preflop: Both Players Play GTO Let’s look at the players’ decisions from the perspective of GTO Wizard —a popular poker solver that analyzes optimal strategies. Palma’s raise with A♥K♥ from the small blind is standard. The solver recommends always opening with this hand against the big blind, and the chosen raise size— 3.5 big blinds —is considered optimal for maximizing expected value (EV). Zavorotnijs’s defense with J♠10♥ is also fully justified. The solver advises defending most suited jack hands and almost all offsuit jack hands except the weakest. J8o is the weakest offsuit jack hand you can call against this sizing. JTo is a profitable call, and Zavorotnijs makes the right play. Explanation for readers: Preflop —the betting round before community cards are dealt. Raise —increasing the bet, defense —defending the big blind, i.e., calling a raise. GTO (Game Theory Optimal)—a strategy that minimizes losses against a perfect opponent. Flop: Why the Solver Prefers a Check On the J♥8♣7♥ flop, the situation becomes more complex. Despite having a strong draw (flush draw plus two overcards), GTO Wizard does not approve of Palma’s continuation bet of 135,000 (about half the pot). The solver recommends checking on this board with 80.9% of the small blind’s range, including A♥K♥. The reason is that the big blind (Zavorotnijs) has an equity and EV advantage here, as well as position. This flop hits the big blind’s range well, which often includes two pairs, straights, and strong draws. Palma, despite being the preflop aggressor, cannot bet frequently on this board. If betting, the solver prefers either a small sizing (25% of the pot) or a very large one (84%), but not the in-between size Palma chose. Checking with A♥K♥ is the most profitable play. Zavorotnijs’s response—a call with top pair—is also optimal according to the solver. Despite the vulnerability of his hand, a raise is not necessary: J♠10♥ blocks some of Palma’s flush draws, and ICM (the tournament value of chips with 6 players left) requires caution. The solver advises shoving only 5.1% of the big blind’s range against this bet, and for J♠10♥, calling is the best choice. Explanation for readers: Continuation bet —a bet by the player who was the aggressor on the previous street. ICM —a model that takes into account prize payouts and the risk of busting in the late stages of a tournament. Turn: Was Palma’s All-in a Mistake? On the 5♠ turn, the situation hardly changes. Palma decides to ramp up the pressure and goes all-in, putting his opponent’s tournament life at risk. His bet— 142% of the pot —is huge and could knock Zavorotnijs out in case of a wrong decision. However, GTO Wizard considers this move a mistake. While the solver does recommend shoving with part of the small blind’s range on this turn, A♥K♥ is not included. It’s more profitable to check or bet about 46% of the pot . The reason is simple: the all-in folds out weaker hands (ace-high, king-high, queen-high) that A♥K♥ already beats. Thus, Palma is folding out hands he would prefer to keep in, and his cards block some combinations that might have folded. A smaller bet keeps weaker hands in the pot, which might pay off on the river, especially if the flush comes in. It also allows for a river shove instead of committing the entire stack on the turn. The solver prefers to bluff shove with hands like Q9, K9 or weaker draws (such as 4♥2♥, 4♥3♥, 6♥3♥ ), which gain more if they fold out stronger hands. For A♥K♥, a smaller bet or a check would have been optimal. Explanation for readers: All-in —betting all your chips. Bluff —betting with a hand weaker than your opponent’s likely range, aiming to make them fold a better hand. Zavorotnijs’s Call on the Turn: Was the Risk Justified? Zavorotnijs’s decision was the key moment of the hand. With top pair and a ten kicker, he faced a massive all-in from an opponent who covered him. If he lost, he would bust in sixth place and receive $50,400 , even though there were still significant pay jumps ahead. Nevertheless, GTO Wizard is clear: calling is the correct decision . The solver advises continuing with almost all top pair combinations against such an all-in. Only the weakest jacks (J2s, J3s) are folded. For Zavorotnijs’s specific hand— J♠10♥ —the call yields $7,311.61 in expected value (EV), despite ICM pressure. Interestingly, even if we assume Palma bluffs less than the solver suggests (for example, shoving only 20% of his range instead of 41% ), J♠10♥ is still a profitable call. The solver continues to recommend calling with almost any top pair except the weakest. This highlights the strength of Zavorotnijs’s decision: he wasn’t just hoping for a bluff, but objectively assessed the strength of his hand even against a tighter shoving range. Explanation for readers: Kicker —the highest side card that determines the winner when main combinations are tied. EV —the expected profitability of a decision in the long run. Hand Analysis: GTO Wizard’s Conclusions and Lessons for Players This hand clearly demonstrates that having a strong draw does not always justify an all-in. Despite high equity, it’s more profitable for A♥K♥ to check or make a small bet, since an all-in folds out hands that are already losing to it. The solver prefers to use weaker draws for bluffing, which gain more if the opponent folds a better hand. For Zavorotnijs, the lesson is that top pair is often strong enough to call even under ICM pressure and against a large all-in. His decisions on the flop and turn were not only justified but profitable, even against a tighter opponent strategy. The hand featured experienced professionals: Nicholas Palma and Vitalijs Zavorotnijs , both of whom already had titles at this festival. The analysis was conducted using GTO Wizard and with the participation of Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson —a professional player, streamer, and content creator who set the Twitch world record for poker streaming in 2021 (1,000 hours in 100 days) and appeared in the first season of the "Game of Gold" show. Tournament Payouts and Prizes (at the time of the hand): 1st place: $277,200 6th place (minimum payout after busting): $50,400 Pot at the time of the hand: 2,270,000 chips What This Means for PPPoker Club Players For members of PPPoker clubs, this hand is a valuable example of how modern analysis tools (solvers) can change the traditional approach to the game. Even in familiar situations—such as having a strong draw—it’s not always correct to choose the aggressive line. It’s important to consider not only the strength of your hand but also which hands you’re folding out with your bet, and whether that’s profitable for you in the long run. Practical takeaway: don’t rush to go all-in with strong draws, especially if your hand already beats part of your opponent’s range. Use smaller bets to keep weaker hands in the pot, which may pay you off on later streets. Conversely, if you’re defending the blind and face heavy pressure, don’t be afraid to call with top pair if solvers show it’s profitable even against tight opponents. Use modern learning tools—even analyzing a single hand with a solver can teach you more than playing dozens of pots. In PPPoker clubs, you can put this knowledge into practice by analyzing your own hands and improving your strategy. This approach will help you make more informed decisions and achieve better results both online and in live tournaments.