Analysis of Daniel Negreanu's elimination at the WSOP final table: GTO and ICM review

Analyzing the key hand that led to Daniel Negreanu's elimination at the final table of the WSOP Online 2023 using GTO Wizard and insights from a professional player. We break down the call or fold decisions, taking into account ICM and GTO strategies.

In the recently concluded WSOP Online 2023 autumn series, one of the most talked-about moments was Daniel Negreanu’s elimination at the final table of the High Roller Championship with a $25,000 buy-in (Event #29). This hand sparked widespread discussion in the poker community and became a great example for analysis from the perspective of ICM (Independent Chip Model) and modern GTO strategies. With the help of professional player Lukas Robinson (Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson) and the new ICM preflop solver GTO Wizard, we’ll take a detailed look at this situation: how the players played, which decisions were optimal, and what theory says. The Hand: WSOP Online High Roller Championship Final Table Tournament: $25,000 WSOP Online High Roller Championship (Event #29) Date: Autumn 2023 Players remaining: 4 Blinds: 100,000/200,000 (ante 25,000) Player Stacks and Positions: Erwann Pecheux (CO): 11 BB Fabiano Kovalski (BTN): 7.9 BB Casimir Seire (SB): 57.1 BB (chip leader) Daniel Negreanu (BB): 28 BB (second largest stack) The action folds to Casimir Seire in the small blind, who, with a clear chip advantage, shoves all-in for 28 BB against Daniel Negreanu in the big blind. The other two players at the table have significantly shorter stacks, creating serious ICM pressure for Negreanu: if he loses, he risks busting in 4th place, even though he could hope for a pay jump if one of the short stacks busts first. However, Daniel Negreanu, without hesitation, instantly calls the shove with pocket tens (TT), emotionally commenting on his call: “f**k off, let’s go!”, and then: “You wanna f**k around? Let’s f**k around!” Casimir Seire shows 98o. For Negreanu, this is a great chance to double up and take the chip lead. However, the board comes A-9-6-8-K, and Seire makes two pair, knocking Daniel out in 4th place. Results and Payouts: 4th place: Daniel Negreanu — $415,699.75 Negreanu was fighting for his ninth WSOP bracelet and, as commentators noted, was not going to fold such a strong hand as tens in this spot. But was this really the correct call from a theoretical and ICM perspective? Let’s break down the situation using GTO Wizard analysis. Situation Analysis: ICM, Bubble Factor, and Risk Premium To evaluate decisions at final tables with big payouts, the concepts of Bubble Factor and Risk Premium are critically important: Bubble Factor (BF) — a coefficient showing how much more painful losing your stack (and busting) is compared to winning the whole pot. This reflects ICM pressure: when there are short stacks, busting is extremely costly. Risk Premium — the percentage by which a player needs to have more equity compared to standard chip EV calculations for a call to be profitable in terms of prize money ($EV). In this hand, Daniel Negreanu’s Bubble Factor against chip leader Casimir Seire is 2.8. This means the loss in equity from busting is 2.8 times greater than the gain from doubling up. In numbers, this gives a Risk Premium of +23.7%: for the call to be justified, Negreanu needs 23.7% more equity than in a regular, non-ICM situation. In such a spot, the big blind must call much tighter than usual. The GTO solver recommends calling with only 2% of hands — that is, only TT and better. Solver Recommendations for SB and BB: SB (Casimir Seire): A mixed strategy is recommended — shove all-in with 71.7% of hands (mainly medium-strength hands) and raise to 3.5 BB with 28.3% (the best and worst hands). BB (Daniel Negreanu): Call only with TT+; even AK is a fold here due to ICM pressure and the opponent’s range structure. Interestingly, even strong hands like AK should be folded: against the SB’s shoving range, which contains many weak Ax, Kx, and medium hands, AK doesn’t have enough equity, while tens and jacks are ahead of a significant part of that range. Detailed Breakdown of Player Actions According to GTO Wizard The GTO Wizard solver with the new ICM preflop module allows you to calculate how profitable each player’s actions were in this hand. SB shove with 98o: According to the solver, shoving with 87o yields +$4,380.01 $EV, while raising to 3.5 BB gives +$4,372.76. The difference is minimal, but the shove is slightly more profitable. Casimir Seire chose the most profitable line. BB call with TT: Tens are in the top 2% of the calling range, so this is the correct decision. Daniel Negreanu played optimally. For comparison: AA: Raising to 3.5 BB yields $8,271.94 $EV, shoving gives $6,539.86. The difference is $1,732.08 in favor of the small raise. 72o: Raising to 3.5 BB — $4,172.80 $EV, shoving — $4,131.90. Difference — $40.90. 87o: Shove — $4,380.01, raise — $4,372.76. Difference — $7.25. Thus, the top of the range (AA) and the very bottom (72o) prefer a raise, while medium hands prefer a shove. This is because raising with strong hands lures weak hands into the pot, while shoving with medium hands maximizes fold equity and avoids tough postflop spots. How Changes in Strategy Affect Optimal Decisions GTO Wizard allows you to model different scenarios when a player deviates from optimal strategy. Let’s look at four tests: Test 1: SB shoves all-in with 100% of hands If the SB shoves all-in with any hand, the BB’s calling range expands by only 0.3% — still only TT+. However, the profitability of calling with tens increases sharply: $EV for TT jumps from $141.89 to $2,962.95, since the shoving range now contains many weak hands. Test 2: SB splits range 50% shove / 50% raise to 3.5 BB In this scenario, calling with tens becomes unprofitable: TT loses $3,656.73 $EV when calling. Only JJ+ remain profitable to call. This shows how important it is to adjust to your opponent’s strategy. Test 3: BB starts calling wider (from 2% to 4.2% of hands) SB responds by reducing the shove frequency from 71.7% to 43.8% and increasing the 3.5 BB raise frequency to 56.1%. For 87o, raising becomes slightly more profitable than shoving, but the difference remains minimal. Test 4: BB calls too tightly (only KK+) SB increases the shove frequency to 81.8% and raises to 3.5 BB with only 18.2% of hands. This exploits the BB’s overly tight strategy — SB can shove almost the entire range, expecting frequent folds. Context: Tournament, Players, and Analysis Tools The WSOP Online High Roller Championship is one of the most prestigious and expensive tournaments in the series, attracting the world’s top professionals. Daniel Negreanu is a Poker Hall of Fame member, eight-time WSOP bracelet winner, and one of the most recognizable players in the world. Casimir Seire, Erwann Pecheux, and Fabiano Kovalski are also well-known professionals who regularly play at high stakes. The hand analysis involved Lukas Robinson (Lukas "RobinPoker" Robinson) — a professional player, streamer, and content creator who set a Twitch world record in 2021 by playing 1,000 hours of online poker in 100 days, and was a participant in the first season of the show "Game of Gold". The analysis used GTO Wizard — a modern solver that calculates optimal strategies with ICM (prize pool factors) and analyzes final tables of major tournaments. The new ICM Preflop Solver module allows you to model any situation and get precise recommendations for shoving and calling ranges. Payout Table and Final Placings (Event #29, WSOP Online 2023) 1st place: (data not provided in the source) 2nd place: (data not provided in the source) 3rd place: (data not provided in the source) 4th place: Daniel Negreanu — $415,699.75 Data on other payouts and placings is not available in the original material. Conclusions and Practical Recommendations The hand between Daniel Negreanu and Casimir Seire at the WSOP Online High Roller Championship final table is a great example of how ICM pressure and a proper understanding of ranges can radically change optimal decisions even for top professionals. In a regular situation, calling with tens against an SB shove seems obvious, but at a final table with two short stacks and huge pay jumps, even hands like AK must be folded. GTO Wizard analysis shows that both players chose the most profitable lines: SB shoves with 98o, and BB calls with TT. However, even a slight deviation from optimal strategy (for example, if SB shoves too often or BB calls too wide/tight) can significantly change the profitability of decisions. What This Means for PPPoker Club Players For PPPoker club members, this analysis is a clear example of how important it is to consider prize pool factors (ICM) when playing final tables of MTTs, even if the buy-ins and payouts aren’t as large as at the WSOP. In situations where there are short stacks at the table, your risk of busting becomes much more costly than the potential double-up — this requires tighter calls against chip leader shoves. Using modern analysis tools like GTO Wizard or other ICM calculators helps train your thinking and adapt your ranges to specific tournament situations. Even if you’re not playing for the same stakes as Negreanu, understanding ICM and being able to adjust to your opponents’ strategies will give you a significant edge in club tournaments. Finally, it’s important to remember: optimal decisions are often not obvious at first glance. Even strong hands can be folds if the prize pool and stack structure dictate a more conservative strategy. Analyze your final tables, learn from top pros’ examples, and use this knowledge to improve your results in PPPoker clubs.